Is the latest Newsweek poll "fishy?" As we reported yesterday, their latest sample of registered voters split evenly on the question of whether they plan to vote for a Democrat or a Republican for Congress this year. Over the weekend, Todd Eberly, an assistant professor of political science at St. Mary's College of Maryland, argued that the poll seemed "fishy" and "cooked." Jim Geraghty gave Eberly's post a plug on National Review Online and, as a result, commenters on my report on Pollster.com have been howling with outrage that we gave any credence to a "dishonestly weighted" poll.
As I noted yesterday, the Newsweek poll did produce a result on the more positive end of the bell curve for Democrats. Make no mistake: A simple average of recent polls (including Newsweek) shows a roughly five-point Republican advantage on the so-called generic House ballot -- a result that points to Republicans winning 50 or more seats and with it, control of the House. Moreover, the trend is moving in the Republican direction. So no one should interpret anything that follows as evidence that "all is well" for the Democrats.
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