THE U.S. AND IRAN AT A PIVOTAL CROSSROAD

Two years into the Obama administration, the United States has made important progress in tightening sanctions against the Iranian regime, but more must be done to alter Iran's nuclear ambitions. Despite the new sanctions, Iran has continued to gain influence in Iraq and Afghanistan and stir unrest in Lebanon, strengthening its armed forces all while advancing its uranium enrichment efforts. Today, it is unlikely that Iran views the United States, preoccupied with withdrawing from the region and addressing its languishing economy, as a genuine threat to its nuclear aspirations. Moving forward, the United States must establish a successful Iran policy that underlines the importance of international engagement efforts while at the same time outlines clear consequences for Iran's continued defiance.

Although the new set of sanctions is hurting the Iranian economy, it is far from crippling, as Tehran continues to weather much of the pressure. Despite new sanctions targeting the energy sector-including harsh financial control on new investments-Iran is still able to sell considerable amounts of oil to nations in demand, most notably to China, Turkey and India. Even as sanctions force Iran to make unpopular cuts in oil and other subsidies, which could potentially stir unrest, it has shown its ruthlessness in quelling domestic dissension. The violent measures taken by the Iranian Basij during the domestic upheaval surrounding the disputed Presidential elections in May of 2009 illustrated that the Iranian government will not easily change course and will do whatever it takes to keep its grip on power. Moreover, although the Iranian clergy is fully aware of the benefits it may derive by ending its international isolation, it is too ideologically committed and consumed by internal rivalries to seek a way out to rejoin the community of nations. For that reason -however severe-the sanctions are not likely to force Iran's hand, unless they are supplanted by other measures the U.S. must be prepared to take.

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