For President Obama, the path to victory in 2012 appeared to become more evident in recent weeks. Since last November's shellacking, Obama has done two things that could strengthen his reelection chances in 22 months. First, he has begun to successfully portray himself as charting a middle course between extremists in both parties. By forging compromises that have angered both the left of his Democratic Party and the far right of the Republican Party, Obama has contributed to this image. The lengthy list of legislative accomplishments, in spite of a confoundingly difficult political environment, to which he can point also contributes to this perception. Second, Obama has, for one of the few times since taking office, regained some of the communication skills that he demonstrated as a candidate. This was most apparent during his speech in Arizona following the tragic shooting in Tucson.
The problem with narrative is that it isn't relevant, and it will not become relevant unless the economy turns around in a way that is meaningful for the millions of Americans who are unemployed, underemployed, deeply in debt, scared of losing their home, frightened about the future or some combination of these things. If the economy is still in this shape in November 2012, voters will continue to be oblivious to Obama's lists of accomplishments or his reinvigorated communication skills and attempts to stress these things will be viewed as merely spin and in some cases acutely insensitive spin. This is not good news for the president or his party. If, however, the economy begins to turn around by the election, Obama's other strengths will reinforce his candidacy, making him a very difficult candidate to defeat.
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