Democrats' Difficult Summer Stretches Into Fall

The political pendulum has swung far toward the Republicans, and at this point there is almost nothing that Democrats and the President can do to alter the overall course of the midterm elections. Republicans will win the House--and quite possibly the Senate--on November 2nd. Democrats had a politically devastating summer that is now stretching into the fall. Politicos talk about campaigns "winning" the day or the week; well, Democrats have "lost" the last seven months.

Scott Brown's victory on January 19th cemented what Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie started in November of 2009 and signaled the start of this terrible run. A look at the Pew Research Center's polling on the news stories "most closely followed" really tells the story. From February through April the most closely watched news story in the country was health care reform (the economy was in second place). The battle for health care reform represents the first splintering of the Obama coalition, as Independents and swing voters began to move away from Democrats and the President. The issue was divisive and it served to energize the GOP base (and fuel the Tea Party movement), creating the intensity gap that we see today: Republicans are almost twice as energized about the upcoming elections as Democrats. A Kaiser Family Foundation poll in August showed that only 43% of Americans had a favorable view of health care reform, while 45% had an unfavorable perspective.

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