Yesterday, the Tunisian people toppled their leader, President Ben Ali, in a historic first for the Arab world. This is still a would-be revolution, not yet a successful one. A revolution entails a change in regime, not just in leadership. Power, today, is still in the hands of those associated with the Ancien regime. As Issandr El Amrani writes: "The next 24 hours may be as crucial as the preceding 24." Elections are to be held within 60 days. Here, US and European pressure will be critical in ensuring these are free and fair, with full participation from all political forces, including the banned Islamist party -- al-Nahda led by Rachid Ghannouchi. Any post-revolutionary government in Tunisia needs to represent the widest spectrum possible of social forces in the country -- socialist, leftist, liberal, and Islamist. Tunisians will have to reassess and redesign their constitutional and institutional setup. This is where the international community (for example democracy promotion NGOs) can play a critical supporting role. For starters, under what electoral framework will new elections be held?
No one should underestimate what happened yesterday in Tunisia. If the revolution succeeds, this may very well prove to be one of the most important moments in recent Arab history. It will alter the calculus not only for Arab regimes -- who are watching very, very nervously -- but for Western powers that have long oriented their Middle East policy around seemingly stable, autocratic governments.
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