The Winter of Their Discontent: What Will the Arabs Do?

Is the Arab world headed for chaos or democracy? The U.S. has been wrong so many times, it's hard to know who to trust in these matters. But some trends are clear, at least. Usually societies that enjoy economic growth also show increased happiness. In the U.S. we've seen that equation hold true, especially in reverse. Economic woes reflect personal discontent. But by this measure, the uprising in Egypt is something of a paradox. In Egypt the GDP has been rising in recent years, yet the population has become discontented, and the rate of their discontent has been sharp. Only the top 20 percent of Egyptians think that their lives are increasing in well-being.

This is according to the Gallup organization, one of the few sources of reliable, objective information in the Arab region. Gallup classifies respondents worldwide as "thriving," "suffering," or "struggling" based on how they rate their current and future lives. Since 2005, the number of Egyptians who describe themselves as "thriving" has declined by 18 percent; in Tunisia a similar sharp decline occurred, down 10 percent in the last three years. The picture is of a society where the top elites grab most of the prosperity -- along with the sense of well-being that goes with it -- while the vast bulk of the population feels shut out and deprived.

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