The surprises of 2011 will not end with the death of Osama bin Laden. They started when the "Arab Street" rose and rebelled, crushing all expectations that wagered on its deep slumber forcing all countries to return to the drawing table to draft policies that would take it seriously as a "public opinion," not merely as a "street" or a "herd" anymore. The phenomenon known today as the 'Arab Spring' was born completely independently from the doctrine of destruction embraced by Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda. It caused great decline of that doctrine in the Arab mind because the generation of change opted for building as a doctrine -- not for destruction. This was further enhanced when Osama bin Laden was killed, earning President Barack Obama international recognition as a man of determination, resolve, and a man of action who must be reckoned with and seriously taken into every account. The fact that the uprising of the Arab people has coincided with the decline of al-Qaeda and the elimination of its infamous leader, as well as with the US president regaining his momentum and power of initiative, is yet another moment that carries the seeds for more surprises. The shape and the place of the potential surprises are not far from the priorities of the Americans, Russians, Chinese and Europeans, particularly in the Middle East and the Gulf region. Decision makers in those countries are studying the meaning of this moment and exploring how to exploit it and benefit from it on the long term. Washington, in that sense, is very preoccupied these days. The Obama administration wants to exploit the momentum of resolve and determination that the US president revived in the mind of the international community as a serious and capable man who must be seriously reckoned with. The world today will listen more carefully than it did when Barack Obama vacillated between hesitation and retreat, or when he seemed incapable of delivering on his pledges and promises.
With regard to Afghanistan, the death of Osama bin Laden may prove to be the spark needed to implement an American exit strategy. The US president, who is seeking a second term, does not want to remain weighed down by what is now known as "Obama's War" in Afghanistan. Striking a near fatal blow to al-Qaeda by liquidating its leader will no doubt help justify a withdrawal from Afghanistan and will give the case for an exit strategy a big boost.

 Pakistan will not become an "enemy" to the administration no matter how strong public criticism of Pakistan gets and how high are the voices demanding accountability. Pakistan is being accused of harboring bin Laden near a military zone, whether with prior knowledge or inadvertently. The fact of the matter is that while the relationship between the United States and Pakistan is complex, it is not frail. It is a strategic relationship that goes beyond the war against extremism and terrorism, especially at the hands of the Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda.
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